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5 Sep 2014
All eyes on US Non farm Payrolls – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Allan von Mehren, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, underlines the big event in the US economy ahead in the day.
Key Quotes
“Focus is on the US labour market report for August”.
“We look for a positive surprise with a solid increase in non-farm payrolls of 260,000 (consensus 230,000) and a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.1%”.
“Continuously low jobless claim figures, a very high ISM employment index as well as optimistic hiring plans are the main reasons for the estimate”.
“Moreover, service payrolls in the July report came out low at 140,000 and we expect a decent rebound, pulling up the total non-farm forecast”.
“Only weak spot in the range of job data recently was the ADP employment number yesterday, showing a rise in private employment of 204k”.
“However, the monthly changes in ADP are not normally a very good predictor of monthly changes in non-farm payrolls”.
Key Quotes
“Focus is on the US labour market report for August”.
“We look for a positive surprise with a solid increase in non-farm payrolls of 260,000 (consensus 230,000) and a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.1%”.
“Continuously low jobless claim figures, a very high ISM employment index as well as optimistic hiring plans are the main reasons for the estimate”.
“Moreover, service payrolls in the July report came out low at 140,000 and we expect a decent rebound, pulling up the total non-farm forecast”.
“Only weak spot in the range of job data recently was the ADP employment number yesterday, showing a rise in private employment of 204k”.
“However, the monthly changes in ADP are not normally a very good predictor of monthly changes in non-farm payrolls”.