ECB Preview: Euro could sell off without a strong commitment to another hike in September – MUFG

Economists at MUFG Bank analyze how the ECB’s policy update could impact the Euro.

Will the ECB commit to another hike later this year? 

The ECB will deliver another 25 bps hike today but we do not expect the ECB to commit strongly to hiking rates again at the next policy meeting in September. 

The ECB will still leave the door open to one final hike later this year but it will emphasize that future policy decisions will be data dependent. One reason why the ECB could still deliver a final hike in September is that it has been focusing on core inflation and wage growth recently which are expected to remain uncomfortably strong over the summer.

Without a strong commitment to another hike in September, the Euro could sell off and drag EUR/USD back towards the 1.1000 level. The Euro should weaken more though against other G10 currencies today.

See – ECB Preview: Forecasts from 12 major banks, the final 25 bps?