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13 Mar 2015
Upside risks to Eurozone GDP forecast – Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - With Eurozone economic data surprising on the positive side, Peter Vanden Houte of Rabobank, raises the GDP forecast for 2015 to 1.4% and 2016 to 1.7%, with likelihood of further upward revisions.
Key Quotes
“The ECB increased its GDP growth forecast from 1.0% to 1.5% for this year and from 1.5% to 1.9% for 2016. The first estimate for 2017 now even pencils in growth above 2% (2.1% to be precise). It seems as if the combination of easy monetary policy, the weaker euro and low energy prices is finally working its magic.”
“Indeed, after a decent 0.3% GDP growth figure in 4Q14, the first quarter of this year started on a positive footing.”
“Unemployment, albeit still high, fell to 11.2% in January, while retail sales climbed a whopping 1.1% MoM in January, continuing the favourable trend started in the fourth quarter.”
“The European Commission sentiment indicator rose to a seven-month high in February, suggesting growing momentum. Even in Italy, sentiment improved significantly, after a lacklustre 2014.”
“On the back of likely healthy first quarter GDP growth, we slightly raise our 2015F GDP growth forecast to 1.4%, while we still see 1.7% for 2016F, with the likelihood of further upward revisions high.”
Key Quotes
“The ECB increased its GDP growth forecast from 1.0% to 1.5% for this year and from 1.5% to 1.9% for 2016. The first estimate for 2017 now even pencils in growth above 2% (2.1% to be precise). It seems as if the combination of easy monetary policy, the weaker euro and low energy prices is finally working its magic.”
“Indeed, after a decent 0.3% GDP growth figure in 4Q14, the first quarter of this year started on a positive footing.”
“Unemployment, albeit still high, fell to 11.2% in January, while retail sales climbed a whopping 1.1% MoM in January, continuing the favourable trend started in the fourth quarter.”
“The European Commission sentiment indicator rose to a seven-month high in February, suggesting growing momentum. Even in Italy, sentiment improved significantly, after a lacklustre 2014.”
“On the back of likely healthy first quarter GDP growth, we slightly raise our 2015F GDP growth forecast to 1.4%, while we still see 1.7% for 2016F, with the likelihood of further upward revisions high.”