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18 Mar 2015
Global GDP growth forecasts for 2015 downgraded - Fitch
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Fitch Ratings on Tuesday cut its global GDP growth forecasts for this year, as emerging market economies will slow more than expected, dragging down the overall pace of growth.
According to the rating agency's quarterly Global Economic Outlook, world GDP will expand 2.7% this year, down by 0.2 percentage points when compared to the previous forecast, released in December. Still, growth will be faster than the 2.5% seen last year. As for 2016, the prediction remained intact, anticipating a 3.0% upturn.
It forecasts the Emerging markets’ GDP growth, which peaked at 6.9% in 2010, to slow to 3.6% in 2015, before edging up to 4.2% in 2016.
The agency said that China's gradual slowdown is "structural" as reforms take effect, but left its growth forecasts unchanged at 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016.
India is the only BRIC nation in which growth will accelerate - to 8% in 2015 and 8.3% in 2016 - however, based on updated national accounts data.
For the US economy, Fitch maintained its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016.
Shifting focus to Europe, the agency upwardly revised its growth estimates for both 2015 and 2016 by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points to 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively. Nevertheless, growth will remain modest, it warned.
Among other nations, Japan is forecast to return to above-trend growth of 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, supported by currency depreciation and higher real wages after an unexpectedly weak 2014.
Growth will remain robust in the UK, as GDP is forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016 following 2.6% in 2014.
According to the rating agency's quarterly Global Economic Outlook, world GDP will expand 2.7% this year, down by 0.2 percentage points when compared to the previous forecast, released in December. Still, growth will be faster than the 2.5% seen last year. As for 2016, the prediction remained intact, anticipating a 3.0% upturn.
It forecasts the Emerging markets’ GDP growth, which peaked at 6.9% in 2010, to slow to 3.6% in 2015, before edging up to 4.2% in 2016.
The agency said that China's gradual slowdown is "structural" as reforms take effect, but left its growth forecasts unchanged at 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016.
India is the only BRIC nation in which growth will accelerate - to 8% in 2015 and 8.3% in 2016 - however, based on updated national accounts data.
For the US economy, Fitch maintained its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016.
Shifting focus to Europe, the agency upwardly revised its growth estimates for both 2015 and 2016 by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points to 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively. Nevertheless, growth will remain modest, it warned.
Among other nations, Japan is forecast to return to above-trend growth of 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, supported by currency depreciation and higher real wages after an unexpectedly weak 2014.
Growth will remain robust in the UK, as GDP is forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016 following 2.6% in 2014.