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7 Oct 2013
DXY at the mercy of DC news flow for the next 10 days
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The DXY enters the week with plenty of risk for the bulls and the bears depending on which way the DC ball bounces.
DXY may pause here before making final stab lower
With the US government remaining only partially operational heading into the new week, the press continues to act as if that is the second important concern facing the US – the first, of course, being the assignment of blame for the ongoing problems.
The real problems for the US and for global risk bulls will be come if and when the US’s debt ceiling is not raised prior to the October 17th deadline. Every day that passes without a resolution increases the nervousness of global market participants. Rest assured, though, that the minute there is even a rumor that there is some kind of agreement on the debt ceiling, the risk markets will rip to the upside and safe-haven assets will be sold – with the one exception being the DXY as it will likely rise along with US interest rates.
Technical outlook for DXY
Technicians say the DXY completed a third wave thrust lower with last week’s low at 79.63. The bounce that took place Friday was likely the beginning of a fourth wave consolidation. That bounce has Fibonacci resistance just above Friday’s close at 80.13 and then 80.44 and 80.69 above that. Below 79.63, support for DXY does not come into play until 78.84 – 79.00.
DXY may pause here before making final stab lower
With the US government remaining only partially operational heading into the new week, the press continues to act as if that is the second important concern facing the US – the first, of course, being the assignment of blame for the ongoing problems.
The real problems for the US and for global risk bulls will be come if and when the US’s debt ceiling is not raised prior to the October 17th deadline. Every day that passes without a resolution increases the nervousness of global market participants. Rest assured, though, that the minute there is even a rumor that there is some kind of agreement on the debt ceiling, the risk markets will rip to the upside and safe-haven assets will be sold – with the one exception being the DXY as it will likely rise along with US interest rates.
Technical outlook for DXY
Technicians say the DXY completed a third wave thrust lower with last week’s low at 79.63. The bounce that took place Friday was likely the beginning of a fourth wave consolidation. That bounce has Fibonacci resistance just above Friday’s close at 80.13 and then 80.44 and 80.69 above that. Below 79.63, support for DXY does not come into play until 78.84 – 79.00.