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6 Nov 2015
EUR/USD: five big figure range - BTMU
FXStreet (Guatemala) - For EUR/USD, analysts at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi explained that they have widened their range for the week ahead to five big figures in light of the obvious big event in the week ahead – the jobs report from the US tomorrow.
Key Quotes:
"We’ve had numerous Fed speakers on the wires over the last two days and it is clear from senior Fed officials that there is an increasing confidence about the strength of the economy and therefore the scope for a rate hike in December. All we need now is for the US economic data to continue showing moderate growth. We don’t think it’s a big ask to make the assumption that the data will oblige."
"The ADP jobs gain yesterday of 182k is certainly consistent with the NFP print tomorrow showing some degree of rebound following the lower than average gains in August and September (136k & 142k)."
"The wage data is of course also crucial and a consensus 0.2% gain in earnings will see a slight uptick in the annual rate. Worth noting that the base effect in Q4 is favourable for the annual rate heading higher into year-end with the Q4 2014 annualised gain a mere 1.2%.
We are taking a neutral view for EUR/USD but only in the context of the scale of the move of late – time for some consolidation perhaps. Our assumption there is that a reasonably decent print for NFP tomorrow is in large part already in the price."
Nonfarm Payrolls: Can it confirm a December rate hike?
Key Quotes:
"We’ve had numerous Fed speakers on the wires over the last two days and it is clear from senior Fed officials that there is an increasing confidence about the strength of the economy and therefore the scope for a rate hike in December. All we need now is for the US economic data to continue showing moderate growth. We don’t think it’s a big ask to make the assumption that the data will oblige."
"The ADP jobs gain yesterday of 182k is certainly consistent with the NFP print tomorrow showing some degree of rebound following the lower than average gains in August and September (136k & 142k)."
"The wage data is of course also crucial and a consensus 0.2% gain in earnings will see a slight uptick in the annual rate. Worth noting that the base effect in Q4 is favourable for the annual rate heading higher into year-end with the Q4 2014 annualised gain a mere 1.2%.
We are taking a neutral view for EUR/USD but only in the context of the scale of the move of late – time for some consolidation perhaps. Our assumption there is that a reasonably decent print for NFP tomorrow is in large part already in the price."
Nonfarm Payrolls: Can it confirm a December rate hike?