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8 Dec 2015
EUR/USD forecast: sidelined as Fed looms – Commerzbank and Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency keeps the recent range vs. the greenback in an uneventful first half of the week, taking EUR/USD to the upper-1.0800s as of writing.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued the pair “is seeing a small downside corrective move, as it attempts to absorb the massive rally from last week. There is scope for a further advance to the 1.1033 200 day ma and even the 1.1087/97 September low and 28th October high. Key resistance remains the 1.1228/17 2014-2015 downtrend and 55 week ma and while capped here the market will remain in a longer term down move”.
Furthermore, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank Jane Foley added “we do expect EUR/USD to trade lower on the back of interest rate differentials and we maintain a forecast of EUR/USD1.05 on a 3 mth view. That said, we remain reluctant to forecast parity for EUR/USD on this horizon based on the risk of a dovish tightening from the Fed later this month and the coincident reluctance of some ECB policy members to extend easing measures even more aggressively”.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued the pair “is seeing a small downside corrective move, as it attempts to absorb the massive rally from last week. There is scope for a further advance to the 1.1033 200 day ma and even the 1.1087/97 September low and 28th October high. Key resistance remains the 1.1228/17 2014-2015 downtrend and 55 week ma and while capped here the market will remain in a longer term down move”.
Furthermore, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank Jane Foley added “we do expect EUR/USD to trade lower on the back of interest rate differentials and we maintain a forecast of EUR/USD1.05 on a 3 mth view. That said, we remain reluctant to forecast parity for EUR/USD on this horizon based on the risk of a dovish tightening from the Fed later this month and the coincident reluctance of some ECB policy members to extend easing measures even more aggressively”.