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1 Feb 2016
USD longs crept a little higher - Rabobank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Jane Foley, FX Strategist at Rabobank, lists down the IMM net speculators’ positioning as at 26 January 2016.
Key Quotes
• “In early January JPY positions moved back into positive ground for the first time since October 2012 and since then they have continued to climb reaching the highest levels since February 2012 last week. However, this was before the BoJ’s surprise rate cut last week.
• The level of USD longs crept a little higher last week for the fifth consecutive week.
• The level of EUR shorts dropped for a third week. This is despite the dovish tone of ECB President Draghi last month and may reflect continued reluctance of speculators to participate in carry trades.
• Net sterling short positions moved even higher to their strongest level since July 2013 following the comments from BoE Governor Carney that ‘now is not the time’ to hike interest rates. A slew of disappointing UK economic data releases and political uncertainty linked to the UK EU membership referendum are both negative factors for GBP.
• CHF positions have dropped back into negative territory. The CHF has also slipped in the spot market sparking speculation that the SNB may have been intervening in the FX market.
• Net AUD shorts unwound some of the previous week’s gains but they remain at heightened levels. Chinese growth and the outlook for commodity prices remain principle drivers. CAD shorts gained a little ground. The outlook for crude oil prices remains a key focus.”
Key Quotes
• “In early January JPY positions moved back into positive ground for the first time since October 2012 and since then they have continued to climb reaching the highest levels since February 2012 last week. However, this was before the BoJ’s surprise rate cut last week.
• The level of USD longs crept a little higher last week for the fifth consecutive week.
• The level of EUR shorts dropped for a third week. This is despite the dovish tone of ECB President Draghi last month and may reflect continued reluctance of speculators to participate in carry trades.
• Net sterling short positions moved even higher to their strongest level since July 2013 following the comments from BoE Governor Carney that ‘now is not the time’ to hike interest rates. A slew of disappointing UK economic data releases and political uncertainty linked to the UK EU membership referendum are both negative factors for GBP.
• CHF positions have dropped back into negative territory. The CHF has also slipped in the spot market sparking speculation that the SNB may have been intervening in the FX market.
• Net AUD shorts unwound some of the previous week’s gains but they remain at heightened levels. Chinese growth and the outlook for commodity prices remain principle drivers. CAD shorts gained a little ground. The outlook for crude oil prices remains a key focus.”