UK squaring the circle: Can Article 7 be used to force Article 50?

Research Team at BBH, suggests that due to an unlikely string of events, the UK had sorted out its government more than two months quicker than it had looked likely in the immediate aftermath of the referendum when Cameron resigned. 

Key Quotes

“However, to the frustration of others in the EU, May not only named Johnson, who insulted nearly every country, as the Foreign Minister, indicated she is in no hurry to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty that formally begins the negotiations of the separation.  

If a UK referendum must be held, European officials wanted it to continue as a member of the EU.  Now that is has been held, and the vote was to leave, European officials want to begin the process as quickly as possible.     

May has thrown a new precondition into the mix.  May says that Article 50 will not be triggered until Brexit has Scotland's backing, and Scotland is not prepared to give it.  It is one of the few areas in the UK that voted to remain in the EU.  

The timing of Article 50 is entirely in the UK's hands (there is a legal debate about the role of Parliament in the decision), but once triggered the negotiations favor the EU. 

The Lisbon Treaty has various clauses that can be used to bring a country to heel.  Article 7 allows the voting rights of a member to be suspended for not cooperating in good faith.     It is seen as a very aggressive step and is unprecedented. 

Even without triggering Article 50, the UK's influence in the EU has already begun to wane.  On the other hand, the signal that other UK officials are sending suggests Article 50 will be triggered either late this year or early next year.  In an attempt to ease business concerns, the UK's new Trade Minister Fox indicated that there would be around a dozen free-trade agreement ready for the UK exit from the EU by 1 January 2019.”