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13 Mar 2014
Flash: US economic update, jobs on track – NAB
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at National Australia Bank gave us an insight in the US economic outlook, with specific attention to Non Farm Payrolls data.
Key Quotes
“GDP growth is expected to decelerate modestly in the March quarter, partly reflecting the temporary impact of a severe winter”.
“Following GDP growth of 1.9% in 2013 we are forecasting GDP will grow by 2.6% in 2014 (previously 2.8%) and 2.9% in 2015. The change to 2014 forecast primarily reflects the impact of revisions to historical data”.
“Fed tapering of its QE program is likely to continue through 2014, with the program ending in the December quarter. No change in the fed funds rate is expected until well into 2015”.
“After a couple of soft months, non-farm employment grew by 175,000 in February, despite another month of severe weather conditions”.
“The weak December and January readings were also revised up a little. The severe winter weather is still probably having some affect on employment growth, although it is difficult to say by how much. The weak December/January results followed two months of strong job gains; as a result the increase in non-farm employment over the last five months is little different to the preceding five months. The bottom line is that the on-going recovery in the labour market is on-track”.
Key Quotes
“GDP growth is expected to decelerate modestly in the March quarter, partly reflecting the temporary impact of a severe winter”.
“Following GDP growth of 1.9% in 2013 we are forecasting GDP will grow by 2.6% in 2014 (previously 2.8%) and 2.9% in 2015. The change to 2014 forecast primarily reflects the impact of revisions to historical data”.
“Fed tapering of its QE program is likely to continue through 2014, with the program ending in the December quarter. No change in the fed funds rate is expected until well into 2015”.
“After a couple of soft months, non-farm employment grew by 175,000 in February, despite another month of severe weather conditions”.
“The weak December and January readings were also revised up a little. The severe winter weather is still probably having some affect on employment growth, although it is difficult to say by how much. The weak December/January results followed two months of strong job gains; as a result the increase in non-farm employment over the last five months is little different to the preceding five months. The bottom line is that the on-going recovery in the labour market is on-track”.