When are the UK jobs and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK Jobs report overview

Early Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the July month Claimant Count figures together with the Unemployment Rate in the three months to May at 06:00 AM GMT.

Although the UK government praises the unlock decision, a divide among the Bank of England (BOE) policymakers and recently mixed economics highlight today’s jobs data as the key for GBP/USD traders.

The UK labor market report is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to May, grew from the previous 7.3% to 8.7%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are seen improving from 6.6% to 7.4% during the stated period.

Further, the ILO Unemployment Rate favors upbeat signals of the employment data as forecasts suggest no change in the 4.8% figures for the three months ending in May. It’s worth noting that the Claimant Count Change figures were -114.8K for the previous month while the Claimant Count Rate was 5.8% for June.

How could they affect GBP/USD?

GBP/USD bears the burden of broad risk-off mood while taking offers around the intraday low of 1.3815, down 0.21%, heading into Tuesday’s London open. The cable’s fall could also be related to the fears of downbeat employment data as the latest survey from the UK’s MovePlan hints Brexit/covid propel fears of losing the best talent.

Although the forecasts are upbeat, the Bank of England (BOE) may not ignore the latest economic challenges due to the Delta covid variant even if the rate hike concerns are on the table recently. Hence, upbeat prints could offer a knee-jerk reaction to the GBP/USD prices while the risk catalysts remain as the major drivers. On the contrary, downbeat figures will extend the pair’s south-run towards the monthly low.

Technically, unless breaking convergence of monthly resistance line and 50-DMA, around 1.3870-75, GBP/USD remains vulnerable to retest 200-DMA level of 1.3784.

Key notes

GBP/USD stays depressed around 1.3850 on sour sentiment, UK employment data eyed

GBP/USD Forecast: Market participants waiting for UK employment figures

About UK jobs

The UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).