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21 Aug 2014
USD/CAD eyes key data tomorrow - TD Securities
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Shaun Osbourne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, in respect of USD/CAD, said there are no Canadian data on tap today but the dual release of the July CPI and retail sales data tomorrow will be carefully watched.
Key Quotes
"There are no Canadian data on tap today but the dual release of the July CPI and retail sales data tomorrow will be carefully watched. Expectations are for weaker headline data and (-0.1% for the NSA reading in the month) and slightly firmer core (+0.1% in the month and +1.9% in the year, from +1.8%). With core prices still below 2%, we think the CAD may react a little more to a weak headline read—especially anything with a “minus” sign in it."
"We continue to feel that commodity price weakness warrants attention. The CRB’s 8% fall since the middle of June has helped push the CAD lower to some extent, although CAD/commodity correlations are not especially strong at this point. More focus on Fed policy normalization may weigh on commodities– such as gold—which have done relatively well in the QE environment."
"Technically, short-term price action is turning a little heavy as our session gets underway but we think the 1.0950/60 area should provide support for USD/CAD near-term; the underlying bull trend in funds continues to strengthen and that should limit downside corrective potential for the moment. Below 1.0950 may see the low 1.09s retested but no more."
Key Quotes
"There are no Canadian data on tap today but the dual release of the July CPI and retail sales data tomorrow will be carefully watched. Expectations are for weaker headline data and (-0.1% for the NSA reading in the month) and slightly firmer core (+0.1% in the month and +1.9% in the year, from +1.8%). With core prices still below 2%, we think the CAD may react a little more to a weak headline read—especially anything with a “minus” sign in it."
"We continue to feel that commodity price weakness warrants attention. The CRB’s 8% fall since the middle of June has helped push the CAD lower to some extent, although CAD/commodity correlations are not especially strong at this point. More focus on Fed policy normalization may weigh on commodities– such as gold—which have done relatively well in the QE environment."
"Technically, short-term price action is turning a little heavy as our session gets underway but we think the 1.0950/60 area should provide support for USD/CAD near-term; the underlying bull trend in funds continues to strengthen and that should limit downside corrective potential for the moment. Below 1.0950 may see the low 1.09s retested but no more."