Significant pressure on the zloty if NBP were not escalate to a 50 bps hike in September – Commerzbank

Poland has seen another upside Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprise in August. This print should weigh on the zloty if the Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) refrains from hiking rates by 50 bps in September, economists at Commerzbank report.

Inflation accelerates further

“Polish CPI surprised sharply to the upside again in August, registering 0.8% MoM increase vs. expectation of 0.2% MoM. Markets should view this as new development. Meanwhile, market expectations regarding further rate hikes from NBP are minimal (possibly +25 bps on 7 September).”

“There is likely to be significant pressure on the zloty if NBP were not to react in any manner to this CPI print (in other words, at least not escalate to a 50 bps hike in September).”